Our outright panelwhich consists of a caddie reporting anonymously from the grounds at Bay Hill; Pat Mayo of DraftKings and FantasyNational.com; Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel; Rick Gehman of RickRunGood.com; Andy Lack of RRG and his Inside Golf Podcast; and your two authorsis all aboard the Willy Z train. He simply lost all his strokes with the putter, something that I can forgive. Byeong Hun An (+550 = Top 20) After slotting at No. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. In the last year, hes lost 0.24 strokes putting per round and has lost 0.09 per round in the short-game categories combined. Matsuyama never gets enough credit for his around-the-green play, a facet where hes earned at least two strokes in each of his past five measured starts. This would be his first since he claimed the 2019 Open title. Which ball counts? Hes riding a super-hot putter and is the most overvalued of the favorites, per my model. Tony Finau ($9,500 DraftKings | $11,400 FanDuel). Due to the big field sizes and the four-day format, many longshots win or come close to victory on the tour. Our PGA Tour expert picks for the wildest event in golf as we break down our WM Phoenix Open picks, best bets and more for the first elevated event. McIlroy has gained strokes putting at Bay Hill in four of his past five trips, which has translated to one win, four top-10s and no finish worse than T-13. Chris Kirk captured his first PGA Tour title since 2015, outlasting 34-year-old rookie Eric Cole in a sudden-death playoff. A good way to hedge that is by employing him in OAD. Aside from the experts below, Fantasy Insider Rob Bolton breaks down the field at this year's . With the PGA picks this week, there could be a lot of drama on the leaderboard as well. Farmers: Taylor Montgomery. Gehman: Rory McIlroy Remember, these elevated events have replaced majors as the biggest purses in golf. Riviera is a much more friendly setup to Theegala than TPC Scottsdale. Poston. With just one missed cut and two finishes outside the Top 30 in a total of 15 starts abroad. In the last four events hes played in, hes made the cut. Cantlay hasnt fared well in majors during his career, recording only two top 10s in 20 starts. 9 this week. how much money or how much time. The Tour Championship is the pinnacle of achievement on the PGA TOUR. Now with football behind us, golf betting should be the focus for many. Bay Hill has been a ball-strikers paradise historically, and theres no better ball-striker to go to war with (besides Willy Z) than Kawa. Kim has the third-best odds behind Sungjae Im and Hideki Matsuyama but I love his fit here. RELATED: PGA Championship picks 2022: Our experts debate Viktor Hovland's chances. All picks and predictions are suggestions only. None of us trade notes before the week but weve all arrived at the same conclusion in regards to a particular Wake Forest Demon Deacon at an event with the most iconic Wake Forest alum in the tournament name. When comparing price and skill-set to his peers, hes the odd man out. Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Okay, I admit that it reminds me of the sixth at Hazeltine National, another Trent Jones product, but I don't think Wilson picked Trent's pocket on this one, as both courses were built about the same time, in the early 1960s. Sentry TOC: Xander Schauffele. RELATED: Want to become a better golf bettor? Farmers: Jason Day. The 28-year-old has his eye on No. Gdula: Tony Finau (+240, FanDuel) Its such a good field that even the top 10 will be hard for long shots to squeeze into with much success. One of McClure's favorite prop bet picks this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 is veteran Jason Day to finish in the top-20 of the final leaderboard at +125 odds (risk $100 to win $125). RSM Classic: Brendon Todd. I believe there are two legitimate paths to victory at Southern Hillselite approach play or elite around-the-green ability. Zalatoris had a surprising missed cut last week at the AT&T Byron Nelson, but its not time to abandon him. Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. I think this is a spot where we can fade Rahm, on a course that favors the drawers of the ball. There were also three new members elected to the USGA executive committee. Mayo: Keith Mitchell (45-1, DraftKings) The number is just too high when you can keep scrolling past his name and find truly elite players who just happen to be in worse current form. Houston Open: Jason Day. During that MC, he gained 2.96 strokes on approach, the 19th-best mark of anyone in the first two rounds. Ill be thrilled if he plays well, but he wont be making an appearance in my lineups. Amateur in 2017, but no U.S. Open since 1948. PGA Tour . His last top-35 finish came three years ago, and hes lost strokes to the field in nine consecutive starts. But one of the best things to come from the week at Riviera was a viral video that showed a 9-year-old heart transplant recipient, Madelyn Quinn, holding a poster behind the 17th hole, . Humbug. The two time major winner . To get you in the mood, you can place bets on things like who will win rookie of the year or who will be declared FedEx Cup champion before the season even starts. Chris Kirk captured his first PGA Tour title since 2015 outlasting 34-year-old rookie Eric Cole in a sudden-death. Its a good number if nothing else. This includes the United States, to who they believe will make the cut, or even who they believe will shoot an ace. We can also see the tangible improvements hes made with his putting stroke, earning 8.21 strokes over his past 12 events. The Florida Swing kicks into high gear this week as a world-class field steps foot onto Bay Hill Club & Lodge for the 2023 Arnold Palmer 2023 Puerto Rico Open odds, field. Longshot pick to win WM Phoenix Open: J.T. We have a Privacy Policy and Cookie Policy. 4. But the hole I like best at Bay Hill is the par-4 eighth, a lovely dogleg-right with a diagonal green perched above a small circular pond. To wager online, you must live in one of the jurisdictions that allow legal sports betting, such as Nevada or Delaware. Despite the negative flatstick, he still finished T-9 and T-14 in those events. Scottie Scheffler claimed the first major title of the PGA Tours 2022 season. The best golf advice from our PGA expert picks is right here. Scroll down to see who we like this week at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. If youve been reading this column over the past month or so, youve been cashing tickets. Even if you get one of those long shots, you may walk away with a tidy profit. He has +1700 PGA golf odds to win the 2022 Wyndham Championship. Fantasy Golf Picks, Odds, and Predictions - 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Wyndham Clark ($7,800 DraftKings | $9,500 FanDuel). GOLF DIGEST MAY EARN A PORTION OF SALES FROM PRODUCTS THAT ARE PURCHASED THROUGH OUR SITE AS PART OF OUR AFFILIATE PARTNERSHIPS WITH RETAILERS. The PGA Tour will wrap up its 2021-22 season this week with the 2022 Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Ga. It's the final leg of the FedExCup Playoffs with just 30 players. Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Emiliano Grillo. Honda: Sungjae Im. Hes not short on confidence, winning twice worldwide in the past 14 months. Rookies, veterans, and journeymen all need good results at Sedgefield Country Club to ensure their place in the FedEx St, where the top 125 players will be announced next week at Jude Championship field in TPC Southwind. There was a world in which I considered Tom Kim as an outright pick this week. Pick To Win: Hideki Matsuyama ($9,200 DraftKings | $10,800 FanDuel). Last week Young showcased real capabilities of attacking high-danger pin locations. He held the lead at this event in 2021 heading into the back nine on Sunday. All advice, including picks and predictions, is based on individual commentators opinions and not that of Minute Media or its related brands. But its easy to see why we all like Z this week. He is priced with peers like Alex Noren and Tommy Fleetwood, who have been competitive all over the globe. The play: NBA, Pelicans money line over Trail Blazers The odds/wafer: +105 ($30 to win $31.50) The book: BetMGM Time/TV: 10:10 p.m. (Bally Sports) Our take: Throughout the course of our daily best . Although his history at Bay Hill isnt extensive, he did finish T-24 here in 2020, his lone start. But given how well hes played in 2022 from the tee to the green, a putter that works for him might be able to change that. High Upside: Kevin Na ($6,900 DraftKings | $8,200 FanDuel). Hes proving to be a force on world-class golf courses, and hes in the best stretch of golf of his career. With so many rounds in a tournament, there are numerous ways to place a wager. This spring, he finished second at the 3M Open and finished in the top 10 at the Masters (T8), the Memorial (T10), and the Deutsche Bank Championship (T8). McIlroy, for his part, was T13 in his lone appearance here in 2021. For more information, please read our Legal Disclaimer. Caddie: Max Homa (+130) over Scottie Scheffler (DraftKings) Homas ball-striking is in an elite category right now, and theres no reason to believe he shouldnt keep up his hot form. Vegas struggles around-the-greens, and hes dismal once he gets on the putting surfaces. Jed Morgan scores LIV Golfs golden ticket as big-name stars plan Aussie escape. RELATED: The sportsbook at TPC Scottsdale looks like it's going to be incredible, Most Likely To Disappoint: Tyrrell Hatton ($8,100 DraftKings | $9,900 FanDuel). And even on prestigious stages, such as the Masters Tournament, when players like Charl Schwartzel and Angel Cabrera won against the odds of +10000 and +12500. Of the 13 golfers priced in the $9,000 range or higher, Koepka has the second-worst SG/approach over the past 24 rounds, and he has the fourth-worst SG/around the green mark. It was down 1.2 units on the week and we need a bounce back. The MC at Riviera was mainly due to his short game. Hes seen tangible improvements with the putter, gaining 21.07 strokes over his last 17 startscompared to losing 20.66 strokes in the 17 starts prior. Note:All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. All betting content is intended for an audience ages 21+. We barely cashed Nick Taylor Top 20 (+230) but it was downhill from there with Matthew Fitzpatrick missing the cut, Ben Griffin doing the same, and betting against Rose in a matchup when he won the tournament. American Express: Brian Harman. Weve been tracking Thomas for weeks, and he seemed poised for an upturn. RELATED:Fans are freaking out over the beer (and water) prices at Southern Hills, Most Likely To Disappoint: Branden Grace ($6,700 DraftKings | $7,900 FanDuel). Rahm has two top-10's in four tries and tied for 21st last year, when he rebounded from a second-round 73 and shot 65 on Sunday. Hes incredibly talented and seems to only be getting better. In 2007 and in previous majors, the premium was all about putting your tee shot in the fairway. If I was designing a golf course specifically for Cameron Youngs skill-set, it would look a whole lot like Bay Hill, as the 26-year-old remains one of the most dominant drivers of the ball in the world and an excellent long iron player. Scheffler, the worlds top golfer, will have to contend with the likes of Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, Rory McIlroy, and Justin Thomas, as well as the rest of the top 10. Adding to the challenge is that every golfer can be used only three times per each of four Segments. Poston has sneakily been really good at this tournament with three Top 26 finishes in his last four starts. and he won the 2022 BMW PGA Championship over Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm, who both happen to be in the field this week. Gehman is co-host of the First Cut Podcast and appears regularly on the Pat Mayo Experience golf podcasts. CJ Cup: Tyrrell Hatton. The hope is that Matsuyama finds his DNA this week and puts it all together. Sam Burns ($9,100 DraftKings | $10,600 FanDuel). Hes historically one of the better short-game players on tour, gaining 0.71 strokes around-the-green and on the green over his past 100 rounds. Matsuyama has battled injury this year, but when hes played he has played well. With only one start at the Wyndham Championship under his belt, the PGA Tours Iron Man has had a light season. Despite the trouble guarding so many of the greens at PGA Nationals Champion course, Kirk managed to hit 54 of 72 greens to rank T-7 for the week, while posting a strokes gained/approach mark of 7.643 strokes gained on the field to rank second. Its yet another elevated event on the PGA Tourso its dangerous to put our chips down on one name over 20-1, but thats what were doing. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports. McClure's optimal PGA DFS strategy also includes rostering Max Homa at $9,700 on DraftKings and $11,600 on FanDuel. (which does not constitute advice) and always recommend you to check terms and conditions before placing any bet. It hosted a PGA Championship in 1995, a U.S. Senior Open in 1998 and a U.S. The term futures bets refers to wagers placed on the outcome of the next season. Weve been on a heater in the matchup and top-10 markets, going up more than 27 units this season. He's got 18.78 percent of the vote, followed by Will Zalatoris (15.66 percent) and Shane Lowry (15.46 percent). Outside of the Zurich Classic, where Grace partnered with Garrick Higgo, he hasnt threatened a top 20 in 2022. Now were getting a little bold. Thanks to live-in-play wagering, its possible to bet on a tournament even after its already begun. You can sense the confidence growing in Ryder, who earned a T-4 in La Jolla and a T-20 in Phoenix, two stern tests of golf. Here are my favorite plays and fades this week at the 2022 PGA Championship. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided. The well-rounded nature of Niemanns metrics, gaining strokes in all four major categories over his past 30 rounds, should provide him with everything he needs to contend this week. Luckily for Thomas, he has both. However, he hasnt needed that skill recently, gaining a staggering 20.4 strokes on approach over his past three starts. Sanderson Farms Championship: J.T. He enters the competition ranked 27th in the FedEx Cup standings (seventh among players who have never won). With the course stretched to over 7,500 yards, the field will be hitting plenty of long irons into these greens. Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for NumberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Hes a great fit and, even if he doesnt cash an outright for us, hes still been good enough at this event to get us a nice chunk. Add in Gdula and Stephen Hennesseys Tony Finau (16-1) winner at the Houston Open in the Fall and that gives the panel four outright hits on the 2022-23 season. He gained 7.86 strokes ball-striking at Riviera, the most in a single event since his win in Memphis, per the RickRunGood.com golf database. Shriners: Taylor Montgomery. His past 10 starts have produced seven top-20s, including two victories. Then it just comes down to the putter. But its the site of an annual PGA Tour event, which is even better exposure to the golf world. They will keep updating their pre-round odds based on the current standings and results on the leaderboards. Spencer Aguiar, one of the most successful PGA bettors in the industry, now features 10+ weekly articles with his exclusive picks, rankings and models in the TeeOffSports VIP subscription.